NYC's Condo Market Showing Signs Of A Recession

(Credit: StreetEasy, iStock)

25% of new condo units built since 2013 are unsold and of the units that did trade, 38% are back on the market as rentals, according to a StreetEasy analysis published by the New York Times. An interesting fact is Larry Silverstein’s 30 Park Place project had about 58% relist their units as rentals. Analysts fear that during a recession, these would-be investor buyers wouldn't be so active. Even so, the inventory count is the larger concern. There are 9,000 unsold condo units in Manhattan alone (including buildings under construction and “shadow inventory” that sponsors are withholding from the market) according to appraiser Jonathan Miller. He claims it would take nine years to sell the backlog. Deals are getting crafty. Take 100 Barclay for example who inked out rent-to-own contracts and One Manhattan Square who is offering 10yrs of common charges.

Within a real estate market cycle, you have a recovery, expansion, hyper-supply, then recession. Which phase do you think we're in?!

The NYC real estate market has been taking a lot of punches to add to the pile on the high inventory:

  • New federal tax laws impacting state, local and property tax deductions

  • Increase in transfer and mansion taxes

  • The slowdown in foreign buyer activity

  • The threat of a new pied-à-terre tax (yes people the threat is back)

  • Numerous talks of an anticipated recession

Nevertheless, we are in a downtrend. If you have to sell you need an aggressive broker whos actively pursuing buyers. Pricing right is a must. Buyers, you have the luxury of low rates, more inventory to choose from, and favorable negotiation terms. Working with a good broker (like me :P) is free and ideal in getting the best deal.

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